Releasing 20 to 30-year-olds who no longer live with their parents could be the best route out of lockdown and avoid an 'extraordinary recession', experts suggest — but at the cost of around 630 extra deaths

Releasing 20–30 year-olds who no longer live with their parents could be the best route out of lockdown and avoid an 'extraordinary recession', experts suggested.

This section of the population — unlike the older generations — is statistically less likely to die from coronavirus, or develop severe symptoms. 

Like many countries, the UK is presently in lockdown to slow the spread of COVID-19 and prevent the NHS being overwhelmed by too many cases at once.

However, the researches have suggested that there is 'no clear exit strategy' at present to show how the country might eventually return to normal. 

The researchers argued that young adults could become increasingly restless over time and may end up choosing to flout lockdown restrictions, risking public safety. 

In the proposal, young adults living with their parents or other older adults would need to remain in lockdown to avoid passing the virus on to their households. 

Older adults might subsequently be returned to normal life through staged releases, using antibody tests to identify those who had already recovered from COVID-19.

Releasing the 2.6 million young adults who work in the private sector could give the economy a boost, the team argued — and potentially save jobs.

The suggestion have been made in a new briefing paper entitled 'The case for releasing the young from lockdown: A briefing paper for policymakers.'

'The rationale for lockdown is to save lives in the short-to-medium-term, said economist and behavioural scientist Andrew Oswald of the University of Warwick.

'However, severe damage is being done to the economy, future incomes, unemployment rates, levels of national debt and the freedoms we enjoy as a modern society.'

'Before long, some balance will have to be struck,' he added.

If implemented, such a policy might see as many as 4.2 million young adults be able to resume their normal daily lives, data from the Office of National Statistics and the Annual Population Survey suggest.

Of this number, 2.6 million work in the private sector and are therefore more likely to lose either income or their jobs entirely in the event of a prolonged lockdown. 

According the researchers, releasing these workers could allow small business to be opened to stimulate the economy, or to play vital roles in the UK's delivery and transport network.

Furthermore, preventing half of young private sector workers from losing their jobs could generate a £13 billion per year for the economy, researchers found. 

The researchers did outline some potential issues with the implementation of their proposed strategy, however.

Even though young adults between the ages of 20–30 are less likely to die from coronavirus or develop severe symptoms, the team estimate that their proposal could lead to around 630 premature deaths compared with a longer lockdown.

The UK Government would also need to clearly communicate the rationale for the aged-based release to alder adults in order to minimise resentment, the team said.

Police would also be required to enforce the new partial-release policy, as they have been the present lockdown.

'We support the existing lockdown strategy, but in the future it will be necessary to allow citizens to go back to some kind of normal life,' said behavioural economist Nick Powdthavee of the Warwick Business School.

'Unless a vaccine is suddenly discovered there are no risk-free or painless ways forward,' he added.

'If this policy were enacted, there would still be tragic cases and some pressure on the NHS, but the effects would be far smaller than if the wider population were released.'

'It could allow our society and economy to move forward in the footsteps of the young, while allowing older workers to share the economic rewards by providing supervision, mentoring, and managerial assistance electronically.'

The full recommendations of the briefing paper were published on the University of Warwick website.

WHAT IS SOCIAL DISTANCING?

Social distancing is a term used by health authorities to help slow the spread of coronavirus by keeping an appropriate distance between people.

Australian health authorities recommend at least 1.5 metres between each person at all times.

This is because coronavirus can be transmitted by: 

• Coughing
• Sneezing
• Being in the same space for a long period 
• Touching the same surface 

Social distancing also refers to limiting physical contact with each other as much as possible which has led to authorities encouraging people to work from home, avoid crowded spaces and public transport as much as possible.

Source: Australian Department of Health