Biden Declared Winner Of Virginia Primary Immediately After Polls Close

It wasn’t really surprising that former Vice President Joe Biden won the 2020 Democratic primary in Virginia, but it was a little surprising that he was declared the winner immediately after the polls closed.

NBC, The Associated Press, and The New York Times all instantly declared Biden the winner even before any precincts were counted. Once the first 1% of results came in, former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg appeared to lead with 33% of the vote, while Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) was in second with 26% of the vote.

This, of course, is meaningless, as 1% doesn’t show the whole picture. Without a complete map yet available, the most likely explanation is that Biden won the Northern Virginia area, which is heavily populated and overwhelmingly Democratic. Winning that small section of the state guarantees victory. One can look back at the 2019 Virginia governor election to see how this works. Most of the Virginia map would be covered Red to indicate the county voted Republican, yet because the population is so concentrated in Northern Virginia, the state goes Blue.

All Biden really had to do is win that area. Just about every other county could have voted for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) or someone else, and Biden still would have won.

The Associated Press had reported earlier in the day that results from Virginia’s Democratic Primary “could be a key indicator of which of the party’s presidential hopefuls will face President Donald Trump in the general election.”

Biden had been doing poorly in the early primary states. He placed fourth in Iowa, received no delegates from New Hampshire, and placed a distant second in Nevada. On February 29, however, his luck began to turn as he finished first in South Carolina, bringing his delegate count from a dismal 15 to a commanding 54, just six delegates behind the current front runner, Sanders.

By winning Virginia, Biden will pick up about 41 delegates, while Sanders so far is taking home 9 in the Old Dominion. That will bring him into not only an early lead for Super Tuesday, but also put him in the lead for the Democratic nomination. Sanders won his home state of Vermont, but that brings with it about a dozen delegates.

Of course, this early win may not seal Biden as the candidate. Just days ago, Sanders was polling 2-to-1 over his next closest rival in California, which has a whopping 415 delegates to give away. But Biden’s quick win in Virginia could also signal a continued upswing for the candidate. In the days before Super Tuesday, some of Biden’s toughest competitors dropped out of the race and endorsed him. Both South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (who won the Iowa caucus and had the second-most delegates before the South Carolina Primary) and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) who surprisingly had come in third place in New Hampshire and picked up a delegate in Iowa, dropped out of the race and endorsed Biden in an effort to keep Sanders from winning the nomination. Along with their endorsements, former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), former Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and failed presidential and senate candidate Robert “Beto” O’Rourke (D-TX) also endorsed Biden.

Biden’s win in Virginia carries some especially bad news for Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). As The New York Times’ Lisa Lerer reported, “Virginia’s northern suburbs seem to be breaking for Biden, with Warren below the 15% threshold so far.” Lerer added that those suburbs should have been “fertile terrain” for Warren.